North-east Scotland approaching ‘Goldilocks zone’ for energy transition – expert

The former oil capital of Europe has a “genuine opportunity” to redefine itself amid the switch from fossil fuels to renewables – but an expert has warned it is “very much entering a make-or-break period”.

Professor Paul de Leeuw, director of the Energy Transition Institute at Aberdeen’s Robert Gordon University, spoke out as a report warned that up to 18,000 jobs could be lost from the offshore energy workforce in the period up to 2035 – the equivalent of about 1,600 job losses a year.

A report from the Institute said that while the switch to renewables could allow Scotland’s north east to reinvent itself as a “world class, multi-energy hub”, it added there is a “Goldilocks zone” over the next five years, during which the decline in the oil and gas workforce must be matched by growth in the green energy sector to prevent a permanent loss of skills and jobs.

The north east of Scotland currently has about one in three of the UK’s 115,000 offshore oil and gas jobs and about one in four of the 154,000 offshore energy jobs.

Currently, about 90% of the regional offshore energy workforce is employed in oil and gas, with the the remaining 10% in renewables – but by 2035 between 55% and 70% of the jobs could be in the green energy sector.

The report suggested the north east of Scotland, which has been the base for much of the North Sea oil and gas industry, was “already well positioned” to benefit from renewables.

That comes as the UK is one of five countries expected to deliver most of Europe’s target of having 300 gigawatts of installed capacity for offshore wind power by 2050, which the report says “presents a material opportunity for countries bordering the North Sea and, in particular, for the north east of Scotland”.

Prof de Leeuw said: “A picture is now clearly developing of how the one-time oil capital of Europe has a genuine opportunity to redefine itself and reaffirm its status as a global centre of energy excellence.

“The workers who helped build one of the world’s most productive offshore basins have the skills to power its next chapter.

“It should give rise to a sense of cautious optimism, but the question is whether the conditions are put in place quickly enough for that to happen.”

He stressed most energy jobs were “highly transferrable” from oil and gas to offshore renewables, adding that workers require “short-term upskilling rather than wholesale retraining”.

This, the expert added, gives the area “a structural head start that few other regions in the UK or Europe can match”.

He stressed the need for investment in renewables, to keep the jobs in the north east, with the report warning the next five years would be “a make-or-break period in which the reduction of the region’s oil and gas workforce needs to be matched by growth in offshore renewables employment”.

Prof de Leeuw said: “The Goldilocks zone is real and the window is closing. Once that skilled workforce disperses, it does not come back.

“The north east of Scotland has the assets, the geography, and the people to make this transition work. What it needs now is the investment, policy alignment, and co-ordination to match.

“The real risk is that if experienced workers leave the region before renewables can offer comparable opportunities, the skills base will erode.

“The supply chain capacity would also reduce, and when offshore wind projects arrive at scale, the workforce to deliver them may no longer be here. We are very much entering a make-or-break period.”