STV News2024 has been a year of change: two Prime Ministers, with a General Election in between, and two First Ministers with a big break-up in between.
While Westminster was stuck in the will he, won’t he of when prime minister Rishi Sunak would call a General Election, first minister Humza Yousaf was busy blowing up his own Government and effectively sacking himself.
The year started with Humza Yousaf as first minister, but it already seemed a struggle with SNP membership falling, and the SNP slipping behind Labour in the opinion polls.
He never quite managed to heal the divisions from his leadership contest and his leadership and his Government seemed to be in a state of perma-crisis.
By the end of April it was over. He sacked the Greens from Government giving up his majority in Parliament, thinking he could carry on leading a minority.
I remember interviewing him in Dundee on Friday, April 26 when he told me he would lead the SNP in to the next General Election.
I said that evening on STV that I couldn’t see how he could lead his party through next week.
He didn’t, he went on the Monday.
He had not only lost his Government partners in the Greens, he had also lost much support in his Cabinet and his MSP group, both of which were due to meet the following day, and neither of which he would have survived.
STV NewsQuestions about who would take over didn’t last long when John Swinney stepped back in to the frontline.
A year before he had decided he didn’t want to be SNP leader and First Minister, instead he wanted to be a backbencher and spend more time with his family.
His family had been up for him taking on the job but he decided to step back, but after a year out of Government, this time his decision was to step forward.
After a year of difficulty, division and indecision he was hoping to steady the ship.
What he wasn’t hoping for was a snap General Election. I’m not really sure many people were hoping for a snap General Election, particularly Conservative MPs.
There was no real rush for Rishi Sunak, he had until about now. He had decided against going to the polls in May to coincide with local council elections in England.
And after the drubbing his party got then, most thought that was it until autumn, and he seemed to back that up saying that the election would not be in the first half of the year.
He stuck to his word calling it for July, which is in the second half of the year, but only just.
UK ParliamentLabour’s clear message was “Change” and after 14 years of Conservative Government at Westminster, it resonated with voters. After 17 years of SNP Government at Holyrood it hit home here too.
The SNP didn’t have much to throw at the election, in terms of finances or firepower.
The Lib-Dems hung on the coat tails of Labour’s change message coupled with a series of embarrassing stunts by their leader Sir Ed Davey who seemed to have borrowed the Willie Rennie election playbook.
The Conservatives had probably the worst General Election campaign I can remember.
From the start they didn’t seem ready, just as surprised by the election called by their Prime Minister as everyone else was.
Rishi Sunak seemed unprepared himself, who could forget his election announcement in the rain, the only person in Downing Street, without an umbrella?
It was branded the “Drowning Street Declaration” and it was excruciating but it was just the start.
After announcing a bizarre election policy to force young people in to national service, Rishi Sunak left the D-Day commemorations early.
His party was then engulfed in a betting scandal, with some close to the Prime Minister betting and winning big on the surprise election date.
In Scotland the party ditched David Duguid in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East while he was recovering in hospital, in favour of Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross who had previously agreed to stand down as Moray MP to focus on Holyrood.
Within days he was forced to announce his plans to resign as Scottish leader, the first time I can remember a party leader quitting during a campaign before he’d actually lost the election.
STV NewsInevitably, Labour won, with a much bigger Commons majority than even they had expected. They won a landslide, more than doubling their number of MPs, with a 174 seat majority, although their vote went up just 1.6%.
In Scotland, they went from two MPs following the Rutherglen by-election, to 37. The SNP were left with just nine down 39 on the 2019 election. John Swinney was just in the door in time to lead the SNP to their biggest ever General Election loss.
In the six months since the election things have turned on their head a bit. Labour’s first act in Government was to cut the universal winter fuel allowance for pensioners. Before that they had ruled out scrapping the two child benefit cap.
UK ParliamentSir Keir Starmer and some of his Cabinet were embroiled in a scandal after taking freebies, including football tickets, concert tickets, clothes and the use of holiday homes; with the Prime Minister branded “Free Gear Keir” in the tabloids.
Fourteen years after the last Labour Government, it’s hard to imagine former prime minister Gordon Brown getting in to any of these problems.
In the meantime, John Swinney has come up with plans to reintroduce some of the winter fuel allowance for pensioners in Scotland and to scrap the two child benefit cap.
He has outmanoeuvred Labour over the last few weeks and recent opinion polls have suggested he could be on course to lead the biggest party, by some way, after the next Scottish Parliament election.
Those same opinion polls suggest Reform, led by Nigel Farage MP, could be on course for their first seats at Holyrood taking votes from all parties. That election is a long way off though and much can and will change by May 2026.
As well as all this 2024 saw the 25th anniversary of devolution, the tenth anniversary of the Independence Referendum and the death of former First Minister Alex Salmond.
His reputation was tarnished in recent years but having led the SNP to Government for the first time delivering free university tuition, free prescriptions and an independence referendum, his political legacy will stand the test of history.
2024 also saw the constitutional question take a back seat in Scottish politics for the first time since IndyRef.
It may turn out to have been a once in a generation vote as Alex Salmond called it in 2014; he was certainly a once in a generation politician.
2024 ends with a twice in a generation politician. Donald Trump was the 45th President of the United States of America and in 2025 he will become the 47th President.
He will probably visit Scotland to open his new golf course in Aberdeenshire. So if you think 2024 has been a crazy year in politics, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
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