Insight: Farming protests over inheritance tax changes aren't making much of a difference - yet

It’s become a familiar sight – and sound.

Once again, tractors circled Parliament Square, parked on Whitehall, and blocked off Downing Street, so farmers could voice fury at inheritance tax changes they say will put many of them out of business.

The sector has warned family farms could become history under the proposals, which will see the introduction of a 20% tax rate on farms worth more than £1m.

Since the first Budget from the new Labour UK Government in October, protests have been held at Westminster and around the country to drive home that message.

One young farmer told STV News: “This is what I want to do for the rest of my life, there are farmers here today in their nineties. I want to be one of those but the rate we’re going, I don’t know if I will be.”

On Monday, that message was also heard inside parliament, after a petition calling for a U-turn gained nearly 150,000 signatures – forcing a debate in parliament’s Westminster Hall.

Farming unions have used the opportunity to lobby MPs – but say the ministers that hold the purse strings still aren’t listening.

Andrew Connon, the new NFU Scotland President told STV News: “We need to get the Treasury in front of us, we need the Treasury to sit down and speak with the four farming unions, and get them to understand the real detail of this because the impacts are potentially terrible.”

It’s already been a long, hard winter of protest. But sure as spring – unless they get what they want, farmers will be back.

Will that have an impact, though? Farming unions say they don’t want to disrupt ordinary people’s lives with blockades that empty supermarket shelves. But they may need to do something more extreme to raise the political pressure.

Clearly the noise and disruption are helping to keep this issue on the agenda, but I have to say – politically, at the moment, it’s not making much difference at all.

The next big flashpoint could come at the end of February. That’s when the national NFU conference takes place not far from Westminster.

Last year, the same event was addressed by the then-Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak.

I wouldn’t bet on Keir Starmer going, but for the government minister who does draw the short straw – there’s going to be quite a reception.