John Swinney does not expect Sir Keir Starmer to still be in office at Christmas

Scotland’s First Minister John Swinney has said he does not believe Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer will still be in office by Christmas.

Speaking ahead of elections to the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Senedd and English local authorities on May 7, Mr Swinney suggested poor results for Labour could bring an end to Sir Keir’s leadership.

He told Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips on Sky News that Labour’s difficulties are “patently obvious” and pointed to opinion polls in Wales suggesting Plaid Cymru could replace Labour as the largest party there.

When asked directly whether he expected Sir Keir to remain Prime Minister by Christmas, Mr Swinney replied: “No, I don’t.”

He said polls in Scotland were “encouraging but not certain” for the SNP and stressed the party was working hard to win the Holyrood election.

Mr Swinney argued that a scenario in which Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are led by nationalist parties, alongside strong performances by Reform UK in England, would spell “the end of the road” for Sir Keir.

He added: “We could see a Sinn Féin First Minister in Northern Ireland, a Plaid Cymru First Minister in Wales, an SNP First Minister in Scotland and Reform all over the place in England. I think that’s the end of the road for Keir Starmer.”

Asked whether that outcome would also threaten the future of the UK, Mr Swinney reiterated his long-held position, saying: “I want Scotland to be independent and that’s my political objective.”

Mr Swinney has said the SNP would seek another independence referendum if it wins a majority of MSPs, 65 seats or more, matching its 2011 result, which led to the 2014 vote.

When asked if such a result would be a “green light” to demand a referendum, he replied: “Yes.” He added that if the SNP wins a majority in May, he does not expect Sir Keir to still be Prime Minister to refuse such a request.

Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie dismissed Mr Swinney’s claims, saying it would be the First Minister who would be out of office by next Christmas.

She accused him of lacking ideas to address Scotland’s public services and said Labour leader Anas Sarwar was offering voters a chance for change after 19 years of SNP government.

“It is John Swinney who will not be in office next Christmas, as Scottish Labour is planning to boot him out of office after 19 years of dismal SNP government, which he has been at the heart of.

“The reason that John Swinney wants to talk about the arguments of the past is that he has absolutely no vision for the future.

“If he had any ideas about how to fix things in Scotland, such as our NHS, our schools, and our justice system, we would have seen them by now.

“While John Swinney arrogantly takes for granted the votes of the public and assumes he will remain as a First Minister leading a tired SNP government into its third decade, Scottish Labour will work relentlessly to offer the people of Scotland the chance to take a new direction with Anas Sarwar.”

Scottish Conservative deputy leader Rachael Hamilton said the SNP’s comments confirmed that independence remains its central focus.

She said: “The SNP have confirmed their sole purpose for 2026 – breaking up the UK.

“Winning May’s election will be claimed as a mandate for another divisive and distracting independence referendum.

“Not just that, John Swinney seems to think the SNP just need to do ‘really well’ to focus on the constitution rather than fixing Scotland’s public services.

“Over the last 18 years, the SNP have taken a wrecking ball to our once-proud education, health and justice systems, while shirking responsibility over a mounting saga of scandals and legal defeats.

“In the May elections, the Scottish Conservatives will fight tooth and nail to kick the SNP out of Bute House so we can put a stop to their endless push for another independence referendum.”