Labour challenges deepen as poll predicts Reform to be main Holyrood opposition

Labour’s challenges are deepening and Reform is in “pole position” to become the main opposition in the Scottish Parliament, researchers have said in response to a new opinion poll.

A YouGov poll for the Scottish Election Study (SES) group puts Labour in third place in the constituency vote and fourth in the list vote.

The SES said the SNP’s vote appears to be holding stable despite just 23% of respondents saying the party is doing a “good job” in Government.

In the constituency vote, when “don’t knows” were removed, the poll puts the SNP on 34%, Reform on 18%, and Labour on 14%, while the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives are each on 10%.

The Greens are on 11% in the constituency vote, though the SES researchers said the fact they are standing in few constituencies may be of benefit to the SNP, the other main pro-independence party.

In the list vote, the SNP is on 28%, Reform 19%, the Greens 16%, and Labour is on 14%, while the Conservatives and Lib Dems are again each on 10%.

Some 1,517 Scotland-resident adults were polled between February 11 and 18.

SES principal investigator Ailsa Henderson, who is based at the University of Edinburgh, said: “The May 2026 election is taking place in a wider context of anti-incumbent attitudes.

“While this continues to hurt the recent and current UK governing parties, the SNP is faring well for three reasons: they are buoyed by support from pro-indy voters, the pro-indy Scottish Greens have opted not to stand candidates in seats where they might have challenged the SNP, and increased competition on the pro-union side of the party spectrum raises demands on pro-union voters hoping to vote strategically.

“In such an environment, whether the SNP forms a government on its own could well depend on turnout and the level of tactical voting.”

Co-investigator Fraser McMillian said: “Reform vote intention across both ballots shot up to the high teens at the beginning of 2025 and has remained remarkably stable ever since.

“There has been virtually no difference in the party’s numbers between the constituency and list vote at any point, suggesting their supporters are scunnered with all the other options and therefore not interested in tactical voting considerations.

“This has seriously damaged Conservative prospects for May and hurt Labour at the margins, with Reform now clearly in pole position to become the official opposition after polling day.”