Politics insight: A week is a long time in politics - but a year has seen huge changes ahead of Budget vote

Fresh from protecting the country’s cats to roam the streets hunting rodents and birds, today the First Minister would say he is saving Scotland’s services with a Budget deal which looks set to sail through the stage one parliamentary vote.

When John Swinney became First Minister less than a year ago, the prospect of a Budget deal seemed beyond slim. The Greens were in a huge huff after being kicked out of Government by Humza Yousaf, which also led to him kicking himself out of Government. In Parliament, on the day John Swinney took over, Scottish Lib-Dem leader Alex Cole Hamilton was calling for a snap Scottish Parliament election and threatening to vote against the next Budget to help deliver one. And Labour were talking up the chances of an early Holyrood election too, given that they were riding high in the opinion polls and looking towards a General Election landslide.

It is 60 years since Harold Wilson decreed that a week is a long time in politics. The pipe-smoking Labour prime minister probably coined one of the most often quoted phrases of modern politics summing up just how quickly and dramatically things can change.

In the last year, Labour’s General Election landslide came to pass, but since then their popularity has been on the slide. People were impatient for change, they voted for change and have yet to feel much benefit from that change. Labour has struggled to explain cutting the universal winter fuel payment for pensioners, why fuel bills are still increasing, and why they are not scrapping the two-child benefit cap. As a result of all this and more Labour’s opinion poll ratings had dipped significantly.

After the General Election it looked like Anas Sarwar was a shoo in to be first minister in 2026. Now the polls suggest John Swinney is pretty much the only option. Instead of “full-on John” maybe he is becoming “on and on John”.

The changing polls have provided the backdrop to Budget talks and prompted serious negotiations between SNP Ministers and the Greens and Lib-Dems. Early on both were offered significant concessions delivering on their priorities. The Lib-Dems got pledges to replace the Belford Hospital in Fort William and the Edinburgh Eye Pavillion as well as increased spending on mental health, Long Covid support and drug treatment and more. The Greens got record investment in climate action, more funding for local services and pilots to increase free school meals and a £2 cap on bus fares.

Labour announced early last month that, rather than voting against the Budget in an attempt to force an early election, they would abstain. Even before the deals were done with the Greens and Lib-Dems, Labour’s abstention guaranteed the Budget would pass. Finance secretary Shona Robison could hardly hide her glee. Today, though, she still has some concerns. The increase in Employers National Insurance Contributions will mean increased costs for the public sector. The UK Government will provide some compensation but still haven’t confirmed how much. It’s likely to be around £300m, but the Scottish Government estimates it will cost the public sector in Scotland more. They want to know exactly how much compensation the Treasury will provide before local authorities set council tax rates in the coming weeks.

Today, the Scottish Budget will pass the stage one vote, by the end of this month it will have passed stages two and three. A year ago this looked unlikely if not impossible. A year from now, with the Scottish Parliament election in May 2026 just round the corner, who know how the next Budget will go?