Reform falls behind Labour in Scottish Parliament election, poll shows

The SNP is on track to secure a comfortable victory in May’s Holyrood election, according to new polling.

The Ipsos Scotland Political Pulse survey of 1,096 adults, conducted between February 19 and February 25, shows the SNP on 36% of the Scottish Parliament constituency vote.

That’s a 16-point lead over Labour in second place (20% of the constituency vote) and 20 points ahead of Reform UK (16%).

Support for Labour has increased after polling showed Anas Sarwar’s party fall into third place behind Reform in December.

The Greens are also forecast to return more MSPs than Nigel Farage’s outfit.

If replicated on polling day, it would be a weaker SNP performance than at the last Holyrood election in 2021, when the party won 48% of the constituency vote.

Four in ten voters also say they may change their mind before polling day.

On the Holyrood regional list, the SNP lead on 26% – ahead of Labour on 19%, the Scottish Greens on 16% and Reform UK on 14%.

The regional list system uses eight regions (Central, Glasgow, Highlands & Islands, Lothian, Mid Scotland & Fife, North East, South, West) to elect seven extra MSPs per region via proportional representation.

Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos in Scotland, said: “The SNP have most reason to be pleased with these new results, which show them maintaining their polling lead two months out from the Holyrood election.

“While Scottish Labour’s constituency vote share has increased slightly compared with three months ago, Labour also look more vulnerable than either the SNP or Reform UK to their voters switching to support other parties.

“With four in ten voters saying they may change their minds, much may still shift once the parties begin their election campaigns later this month.”

The SNP is projected to win 60 seats in the next Scottish Parliament. Scottish Labour would take 20 seats, the Scottish Greens 16 seats, and Reform UK 13 seats.

The Scottish Conservatives and the Scottish Liberal Democrats are both projected to win ten seats.

General Election polling

The SNP remain in front for Westminster voting on 33%, three points above their 2024 result.

Labour have regained support since the last Ipsos poll in December, with the party now on 21% (up four points)

Reform UK are on 17%, while the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are on 10%.

What matters to voters?

Healthcare and the NHS is the top concern for 56% of voters ahead of May’s election.

That is followed by inflation/the rising cost of living (35% – down six points compared with Ipsos’ previous poll in December), the economy (27%), immigration (25% – down five points), and Scottish independence/devolution (24%).

Immigration is particularly important to Reform UK supporters (74%) and to a lesser extent, to Conservative supporters (34%), while Scottish independence is particularly important to SNP supporters (51%).

Leader satisfaction

None of the party leaders asked about in the poll were rated positively overall by the public.

First Minister John Swinney is the least poorly rated, with 35% of the public saying they are satisfied with his performance and 51% that they are dissatisfied – a “net” satisfaction rating of -16.

Scottish Labour’s Anas Sarwar’s approval ratings are at a similar level to three months ago, with 24% of the public satisfied with him and 53% dissatisfied – a net satisfaction rating of -29.

Meanwhile, around one in three Scots don’t know enough to rate Reform UK Scotland leader Malcolm Offord,
Scottish Green co-leaders Gillian Mackay and Ross Greer, or the Conservatives’ Russell Findlay.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s approval ratings, although still very low, have rallied a little.

Just under three quarters of the Scottish public (73%) are dissatisfied with him and 18% satisfied – giving a net satisfaction rating of -55, compared with -63 in Ipsos’ previous poll in December.

As in December, almost three times as many Scots are dissatisfied (62%) as are satisfied (21%) with Reform UK’s Nigel Farage, giving a net rating for him of -41.

Independence still finely balanced

The Scottish public remain divided on the constitutional question, with 51% of those likely to vote either Yes or No in an immediate referendum saying they would vote Yes and 49% that they would vote No.