Sir Keir Starmer vows to fight on as Prime Minister, so what happens next?

Sir Keir Starmer has come under intense pressure to resign as Prime Minister, following a disastrous set of Labour local election results.

His position was looking increasingly precarious on Tuesday following the resignation of four government ministers, among them Glasgow South West MP Zubir Ahmed.

The health minister followed Miatta Fahnbulleh, Jess Phillips and Alex Davies-Jones in quitting the government, citing a “lack of values-driven leadership”.

Starmer told his Cabinet on Tuesday that he would continue governing, with several senior ministers rallying around him after the meeting.

A statement understood to have been signed by more than 100 Labour MPs backing Starmer urged colleagues to start “working together”.

But the PM’s future remains unclear, with at least 81 out of Labour’s 403 MPs now demanding he stand down after the party’s electoral mauling last week.

So what is the current state of play and what is likely to happen next?

Who has quit Starmer’s government?

Safeguarding minister Jess Phillips became the second minister to stand down on Tuesday, criticising Starmer’s failure to be “bold”.

In a letter shared to X by Sky News, the Birmingham Yardley MP wrote: “I think you are a good man fundamentally, who cares about the right things however I have seen first-hand how that is not enough.

“The desire not to have an argument means we rarely make an argument, leaving opportunities for progress stalled and delayed.”

Jess Phillips stood down as safeguarding minister on Tuesday. Getty Images

Phillips’ departure followed the resignation on Tuesday morning of Miatta Fahnbulleh, minister for housing, communities and local government.

She told the Prime Minister “to do the right thing for the country and the party and set a timetable for an orderly transition” as the public had lost trust in him because of issues such as the scrapping of the winter fuel payment.

Victims minister Alex Davies-Jones also resigned on Tuesday.

Fahnbulleh is seen as a close ally of energy secretary Ed Miliband, who reportedly privately told Sir Keir to consider stepping down last week.

Home secretary Shabana Mahmood and foreign secretary Yvette Cooper are also reportedly among those to have had similar conversations with him.

So who is supporting him?

Four senior ministers spoke out in support of Starmer after he told his gathered Cabinet he would continue governing.

Technology secretary Liz Kendall, business secretary Peter Kyle, work and pensions secretary Pat McFadden and housing secretary Steve Reed stood by the Labour leader as they faced the cameras on Downing Street after the Cabinet meeting.

McFadden said nobody publicly challenged Sir Keir to go, and that the Government should “carry on”.

Kendall added: “This Government will do what we were elected to do which is serve the British people. The Prime Minister has my full support in this.

“Let me just say this; there is a process to challenge the leader, nobody has made that challenge and what people would expect me to do is to focus on how we can grow the economy, tackle the cost of living and give them a better life.”

Kyle said Sir Keir was showing “really steadfast leadership”, and Reed said the Prime Minister had his “full support”.

How likely is a leadership challenge?

In numerical terms, this is the threshold needed to trigger a leadership contest – but on the important condition that they all line up behind the same candidate, which is not the case at the moment.

One senior figure who already has support from some MPs is Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, but he would need a seat in the House of Commons before he could take over from Starmer.

Many in Westminster have interpreted calls for the PM to follow a longer exit timeline as being support for a Burnham premiership.

Andy Burnham would need a seat in the House of Commons before he could take over from Starmer. STV News

There are two by-elections coming up in Scotland, after both SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn (Aberdeen South) and SNP MP Stephen Gethins (Arbroath and Broughty Ferry) were elected to Holyrood.

But Burnham is unlikely to stand in either of those.

If a seat were to become vacant, Burnham would need to win over the National Executive Committee (NEC), who is responsible for choosing Labour’s candidates.

In January this year the NEC blocked Mr Burnham from running in Gorton and Denton.

A ten-strong group, including the Prime Minister, voted to deny Burnham permission to stand in the Greater Manchester by-election.

Sir Keir justified the move arguing “an election for the Mayor of Manchester when it’s not necessary would divert our resources away from the elections that we must have”.

Wes Streeting, the health secretary, is also seen as a possible successor to Sir Keir.

Wes Streeting is seen as a possible successor to Starmer. Getty Images

But on Tuesday, former Labour shadow chancellor John McDonnell accused Streeting of launching a coup against Starmer.

Writing on social media, the left-winger said: “I called for time for serious discussion, no precipitous coup & fully democratic process if leadership election.

“Instead Wes Streeting has launched coup for fear of a democratic process & whilst candidates are blocked. Handing leadership to Mandelson’s protege is gift to Reform.”

Insight Lucy Dunn STV Westminster Correspondent

The future of the Prime Minister is hanging in the balance and the question today is what lies in store for Sir Keir Starmer.

MPs across the Labour party have joined calls for the prime minister to resign after disastrous results in the English council elections and the devolved parliament elections in England and Wales last week.

Initially, it was just backbencher MPs who put their heads above the parapet, but parliamentary private secretaries started resigning from their roles in government on Monday night.

As it stands, less than ten Scottish Labour MPs have put their head above the parapet – but these include some significant names.

Melanie Ward, the parliamentary private secretary to justice secretary David Lammy – quit her job on Monday night and called for Starmer to go. Gordon McKee is another parliamentary private secretary in the department of work and pensions who has echoed that call.

On Tuesday morning, Richard Baker, the chair of the Scottish parliamentary Labour party, also called on Starmer to step down.

At present, the Prime Minister isn’t budging. His message to any possible contenders, like health secretary Wes Streeting, is essentially: put up or shut up.

Now the question is whether anyone will be bold enough to make a challenge – and whether they could unite around them those 80 MPs who want the Prime Minister to resign.