STV News poll: Keir Starmer's approval among Scots at all-time low after year as Prime Minister

Keir Starmer’s approval among Scots is at an all-time low as he marks one year as Prime Minister, according to new polling for STV News.

This week marks one year in office for the first Labour PM in 14 years.

It comes as Starmer faces what could be the biggest rebellion by Labour MPs since he took over as leader.

The internal party split over welfare reforms has left Labour MPs in despair at the standard of political leadership from 10 Downing Street.

A new poll by Ipsos, in partnership with STV News, shows 64% of Scots are dissatisfied with Starmer’s performance as Prime Minister.

Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,066 adults between June 12 and June 18 – before the peak of the welfare cuts row and ahead of the Prime Minister’s U-turn.

The Scottish Political Monitor reveals Starmer’s approval ratings have “fallen markedly” compared with a year ago, when his Labour Government won the 2024 general election in a landslide.

Only 22% of the Scottish public are satisfied with the way Starmer is doing his job, giving him a net-satisfaction rating of -42 in Scotland.

Among voters who supported Labour at the 2024 General Election, almost half (49%) say they are dissatisfied.

Starmer’s ratings have also fallen behind Nigel Farage’s. 24% say they are satisfied by the Reform UK leader’s performance. Although he remains unpopular among the Scottish public, with 54% of Scots saying they are dissatisfied with him.

“These new results show how dramatically Scotland’s political landscape has shifted compared with a year ago,” Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos in Scotland, said.

“Reform UK have made significant strides in Scotland to become the third largest party in both Westminster and Holyrood voting intentions.

“While neither Nigel Farage nor Keir Starmer are popular amongst the Scottish public at present, Starmer’s ratings have now fallen behind Farage’s, far from the situation the Prime Minister would want as he marks his first anniversary in Downing Street this week.”

Reform set to be the third largest party at Holyrood

Reform UK is set to receive the third-largest share of the votes at the next Holyrood election, according to the poll.

While the SNP is currently leading on Scottish Parliament voting intentions, with 34% of voters saying they would vote for the party, 14% said they would vote for Nigel Farage’s Reform.

The Scottish Political Monitor also reveals a change in fortunes for Labour, who are expected to lose seats but remain the second largest party at Holyrood with 23% of the vote.

“A key question for Labour is whether it will be able to win voter support back ahead of next May’s Holyrood elections,” Ms Gray said.

“While the SNP will be pleased that the results show them leading on both Holyrood and Westminster voting intentions, there are also warning signs for the party.

“Their vote share still lags behind what the party achieved at the last Holyrood elections in 2021, and John Swinney’s approval ratings are lower than they were a year ago.”

Independence not in top ten issues facing Scotland

Although a slight majority of Scots are in favour of independence, the latest poll suggests that it’s not a major priority for voters, with it not appearing in the top ten most important issues facing the country.

Among those likely to vote either Yes or No in an immediate referendum, 52% say they would
vote Yes and 48% No.

However, the poll reveals that healthcare, the NHS, the cost of living, and public services all take precedence over independence for many voters.

Although it remains important for SNP voters.

50% of those who say they would use their constituency vote for the SNP mention it as a very important issue facing Scotland, compared to 24% of the public overall.

Top ten issues facing Scotland

The NHS, the cost of living crisis, and issues with public services generally are seen by the public as the most important issues facing Scotland, according to the poll.

Respondents were asked to select subjects they considered to be the most important issues facing the country today.

The results were:

Healthcare/NHS/hospitals (69%)
Inflation/rising cost of living (52%)
Public services generally (42%)
Lack of faith in politicians/political parties/system of government (41%)
Poverty/inequality (40%)
Education/schools (40%)
Economy/economic situation (37%)
Housing (37%)
Care for older and disabled people (36%)
Crime and anti-social behaviour/law and order (35%)

Ipsos interviewed a representative probability sample of 1,066 adults aged 16 and above across Scotland, via the Ipsos UK Knowledge Panel. Data was collected online between June 12 and June 18. Panel members are recruited via random probability sampling, by sending letters to randomly selected addresses, which invites them to join an online panel.