The year ahead in Scottish politics: Elections, budgets and big decisions

It’s a big year ahead for Scottish politics with the Holyrood election in May.

Thousands of voters will decide who will be the next First Minister on May 7. The parties are already on an election footing, and that will ramp up in the coming months.

A recent poll for STV News put the SNP well out in the lead at this stage on the constituency vote, and it is a similar picture when it comes to the list vote.

The Ballot Box Scotland website projection gives the SNP the most seats once again at Holyrood, but they would fall short of their target of an overall majority.

Labour are projected to finish second, Reform and the Greens are neck-and-neck on 17 seats, and the Conservatives are set to be pushed back into fifth place.

But that is just one poll and there is a lot to play for ahead of May.

Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos in Scotland, said the poll is “reasonably good news for the SNP” as it showed they were on track to win over 35% of the constituents who vote.

“That’s almost double the vote share of any other party,” she said, while emphasising that is still less than the party managed to achieve at the last Scottish parliamentary elections in 2021.

Ms Gray said the latest polls are also good news for Reform but “really grim” for Labour.

“There’s no sign of a bounce in the polls following the Budget for them,” she said.

“Also, Keir Starmer’s personal ratings have fallen as well. Over three in four people in Scotland now say that they’re dissatisfied with the job he’s doing as Prime Minister.”

“Labour are not managing to hold on to most of the votes of the voters they attracted at the last General Election. There are only around two in five of those who still say they would cast their vote for Labour.”

Among the big issues in the campaign, the health service and the cost of living crisis are likely to feature heavily.