Holidaymakers should have no worries about flights being cancelled, former Ryanair boss claims

Scottish holidaymakers should have “no worries” about flights being axed this summer, despite airlines facing a “triple whammy” as a result of the conflict in the Gulf, a former industry boss has insisted.

Tim Jeans, a former commercial director at Ryanair who was later managing director of Monarch Air, said while there “may be some trimming of schedules” by airlines he did not expect firms to cancel routes altogether.

His comments come in the wake of warnings from the trade body for European airports that there could be a “systemic” shortage of jet fuel ahead of the peak summer season if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen in the weeks ahead.

Airports Council International, which represents more than 600 airports, wrote recently to European commissioners for energy and transport and tourism, claiming that if the crucial strait does not reopen in a “significant and stable way within the next three weeks” then “systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU”.

Director-general Olivier Jankovec said: “The fact that we are entering the peak summer season… is only adding to those concerns.”

Mr Jeans however said: “I don’t see a situation where flights will get cancelled because of the non-availability of fuel.”

He accepted that there was a “triple whammy for airlines at the moment”, including “the issues in the Middle East which has caused a massive spike in the cost of fuel”.

Speaking on BBC Radio Scotland’s Breakfast programme, Mr Jeans added: “That in turn is pushing up ticket prices, and the uncertainty around whether it is going to be possible to travel, plus the increase in prices is reducing demand.

“And so you have a situation where airlines are looking at their bookings for the next three months ahead and saying ‘should we fly that flight, is it going to be profitable?’”

However he stressed that “for holidaymakers from Scotland they need have no worries on that score”.

Mr Jeans said: “The airlines, particularly the holiday airlines, have got very robust bookings for May, June and July.

“I don’t see really a possibility that for example somebody booked to go to Majorca or Malaga is going to find their flight cancelled.

“There may be some trimming of schedules which might mean a flight time alteration, but are they going to see their flight cancelled altogether? I think not.”

He added that if an airline operates several flights a day between the same locations “they might possibly cut five down to four, they might cut four down to three even”.

But Mr Jeans dismissed the notion there would be more widespread cancellations – with the exception of flights to the Middle East, where he said an escalation of the current conflict could see planes grounded for safety reasons.

He added: “For the vast majority of destinations that people travel to, whether for leisure or business, they should be quite confident they can book.”

Mr Jeans stressed many airlines will have bought supplies of jet fuel well in advance – and also said supplies could be sourced from alternative sources not affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, such as the US.

He said: “We can get jet fuel from places other than the Middle East, and there are changes now in the supply chain, bringing more aviation fuel from the US.

“I’m not saying there is no problem, that would be foolish to say that, but I think it is fair to say most airlines will be confident they could uplift enough fuel to fly the programmes they plan to fly.”