Less than 40% of pupils passed National 5 maths in 2025, says think tank

An independent think tank has released what it calls “deeply concerning data” which shows that less than 40% of S4 pupils passed National 5 maths in 2025.

The Commission on School Reform, the education arm of the independent think tank Enlighten, has released freedom of information (FOI) request data which reveals that A-C grades for S4 pupils in National 5 maths is down to 39.5%.

The commission’s research has revealed that data for Stem (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) subjects for 2025 shows the A-C pass rates for National 5 are 39.5% in mathematics, 25.5% in biology, 22.2% in chemistry, 17.8% in physics and 9.8% in computing science.

Carole Ford, former headteacher at Kilmarnock Academy and a former principal teacher of maths, who is a member of the commission, said: “This is deeply concerning data.

“We are used to hearing from the authorities that attainment is rising and rising, but this is real and full data which presents a contrary picture in Stem subjects.”

In December 2023, the latest Programme for International Student Assessment (Pisa) results were published and showed a decline in maths and science subject attainment.

For maths the score in 2022 was 471, just below the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) average of 472 and down from 489 in 2018, 491 in 2015 and 498 in 2012.

In science, Scotland’s score was 483, down from 490 in 2018, 497 in 2015 and 513 in 2012.

Ms Ford continued: “We have known for some time, thanks to Pisa data, that we have declining outcomes in maths and science, and this FOI data shows that the mountain we have to climb only gets higher.

“We are in real danger, in Scotland, of using highly selective data to sweep the realities of school performance under the carpet. We must stop, now.”

The study analyses the SQA (Scottish Qualifications Authority) examination data based on the number of pupils in the cohort, rather than the number which sit the examination.

The data is analysed as if 100 pupils sit National 5 Maths and 90 pass, the Scottish Government would consider this to be a pass rate of 90%.

However, if the total number of pupils was actually 200, and only 100 sit the exam, the overall proportion of the cohort gaining the qualification is only 45%.

Professor Lindsay Paterson, professor emeritus of education policy in the School of Social and Political Science at the University of Edinburgh, and a member of the commission, said: “In the internationally respected Pisa tests, Scottish attainment fell from early in the century to the middle of the first decade, stabilised for a few years, and then, from 2012, started a steady decline which was unmitigated except for a brief rise in reading in 2018 (which was wiped out by the 2022 fall).

“As a result, over the whole decade from 2012 to 2022, the Scottish decline was equivalent to about 16 months of schooling in mathematics, eight months in reading, and 18 months in science.

“In all these tests of science and mathematics, Scotland was far behind the democracies of east Asia: notably Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan.

“These countries have achieved their economic success through science and technology, which rest on the very high achievements of their students in these fields. Scotland ought to be emulating them.

“This annual FOI data on real pass rates is now an important addition to the currently disgraceful data landscape. I reiterate the commission’s call for an Office for School Education Data to oversee a new data programme, answerable to Parliament and independent of government.”

A Scottish Government spokesperson said: “If the position was as the commission claims, we would share its concern.

“However, not all pupils take their National 5s in S4.

“The mathematics pass rates at National 5 and Higher have increased from 2019 and 2024.

“Levels of literacy and numeracy across primary and secondary schools are at a record high, with a record low poverty-related attainment gap across both primary and secondary.

“Maths was the first subject to be updated under the wider Curriculum Improvement Cycle and work is progressing at pace.

“The national mathematics specialist adviser has been working closely with Education Scotland to consider all elements of the curriculum.”