National living wage to rise in 2026, UK pay body estimates

The national living wage could rise by up to 65p an hour next year, an advisory body has estimated.

However, a more modest 50p increase to £12.71 would be enough to ensure the minimum wage doesn’t fall below the Government’s target.

The UK Government has asked the Low Pay Commission (LPC) to ensure the national living wage doesn’t drop below two-thirds of UK median earnings.

It’s part of the Government’s commitment to “raising the living standards of working people”.

The latest projections for the national living wage in 2026 were published on Tuesday.

Taking into account the cost of living, inflation forecasts, the impact on the labour market, and other conditions, the LPC estimated that a 4.1% increase will be necessary by next April.

“Our central estimate is that a national living wage increase to £12.71 (4.1%) would ensure [it] does not fall below two-thirds of median earnings,” the LPC said.

“However, predicting this figure is challenging, so we project a range around our central estimate, which runs from £12.55 to £12.86.”

The minimum wage is currently £12.21 an hour for people aged 21 and over.

The LPC said its projections are not yet set in stone, and it will need to consider economic conditions before making its final recommendation.

“By the end of October 2025 we will provide our advice to the Government on the national living wage and national minimum wage rates to come into effect in April 2026,” the LPC said.