Sales fall for second month in row amid ongoing conflict in Middle East

Scottish retail sales fell for the second month in a row as the situation in the Middle East continues to hit consumer confidence, economists have said.

Figures from the Scottish Retail Consortium (SRC) and KPMG showed total sales in Scotland fell by 1.2% in April compared with the same month last year, when they had increased by 4.5%.

This is below the three-month average decrease of 0.9% and below the 12-month average increase of 0.4%.

Adjusted for inflation this represents a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%.

Food sales took the biggest hit, plunging by 4.0% compared with April 2025, while non-food sales rose by 1.0% on last year, when they had risen by 6.3%.

Adjusted for the effect of online sales, non-food sales in Scotland showed no change compared with April 2025, when they had increased by 8.7%.

SRC director David Lonsdale described the slump as “less than surprising” due to Easter falling early this year, and a fall in shopper footfall during the month.

He went on: “However, this was a second successive monthly contraction as concern over the implications of the situation in the Middle East weakened consumer confidence and as households came to terms with higher outlays on water charges, council tax, and at the petrol pump.

“Worst affected was grocery sales which tumbled by 4%, also falling over the quarter as a whole.

“Indeed, food sales have grown by a paltry 0.1% on average over the past 12 months as shoppers sought out value by trading down to own-brand products and leaned into retailers’ loyalty schemes and promotions.

“Non-food items fared a bit more positively and there were early signs of demand for TVs likely linked to this summer’s spectacle of major sporting events including Scotland’s participation in the World Cup finals and Glasgow’s Commonwealth Games.

“Travel related purchases, however, underwhelmed.”

He called on the UK and Scottish Governments to support retailers by cutting business rates and red tape.

“Global events such as the situation in the Middle East and higher commodity prices might be out of (the) government’s hands, but costs imposed here at home are not,” he said.

“It’s why the UK and Scottish Governments should help retailers’ efforts to keep down shop prices for households in the short, medium, and long term by working with us to reduce the statutory costs retailers and their suppliers face.

“This should begin with a reduction in food businesses’ energy costs especially non-commodity charges, a more competitive business rate, and curbing or pausing any new regulations.”

Linda Ellett, UK head of consumer, retail & leisure at KPMG, described the figures as “disappointing”.

“Consumer confidence has been further dampened by rising prices due to the Iran conflict, with consumers cautious about potential ongoing effects,” she said.

“As a result, the retail sector is facing a challenging start to spring/summer, but there is hope that holiday demand and the World Cup still manage to unlock spending in the weeks and months ahead.”