Scotland set for heatwave with temperatures to soar above 30C

Scotland is set for its first heatwave of the year with temperatures set to soar above 30C.

The Met Office has issued a rare red weather warning for extreme heat in central and southern England and Wales on Wednesday and Thursday.

Temperatures near 40C are possible south of the border.

Although it won’t be as hot in Scotland, a heatwave is still expected with three consecutive days of temperatures exceeding 25C.

Insight

How hot will it get and what does it mean for Scotland’s summer?

Sean Batty

STV meteorologist Sean Batty says temperatures could climb into the low 30s across Ayrshire, Renfrewshire, Glasgow, Argyll, Dumfries and Galloway and the Borders.

This means that Scotland’s June temperature record of 32.2C, set in 1893, could be broken.

It is more likely that a number of towns and villages will set new local June records.

And very warm nights could also see some overnight temperature records challenged.

Insight Sean Batty STV meteorologist

Will it be record-breaking?

Almost certainly in England and Wales.

England’s June temperature record stands at 35.6°C, while Wales’ is 33.7°C. Both are expected to be surpassed – and not by a fraction of a degree. That’s what makes this heatwave so remarkable – records could be broken by several degrees.

England and Wales are also likely to experience their warmest June nights on record.

In Scotland, the June temperature record is 32.2°C, set way back in 1893. During the June 2018 heat, Renfrewshire reached 31.9°C, while June 2020 brought temperatures of 30°C to Prestwick.

The air moving into the UK is not only hot but also humid, which means temperatures won't fall very much overnight — The air moving into the UK is not only hot but also humid, which means temperatures won’t fall very much overnight Adobe Stock

So, while temperatures in the 30s can occur in Scotland during June, they’re still relatively rare. In fact, the 30°C mark has only been exceeded on a handful of days over the last century.

As for Scotland’s all-time June record, it could be close. More likely, however, is that a number of towns and villages will set new local June records.

Very warm nights could also see some overnight temperature records challenged.

Some very muggy nights ahead

The air moving into the UK is not only hot but also humid, which means temperatures won’t fall very much overnight – quite a contrast to the frosts some areas experienced at the weekend.

The warmest night is expected to be Thursday into Friday, when temperatures could remain close to 20°C throughout the night in parts of Glasgow, Ayrshire, Moray and even the northern Highlands.

Scotland’s warmest June night on record was recorded in Springburn, Glasgow, where the temperature did not fall below 19.9°C in June 1990.

“It’s just summer!”

Well, first, it’s only a few days into summer – the season only began on Sunday.

While 30°C is occasionally reached in Scotland during June, it’s still uncommon. But the bigger story is what’s happening further south.

In 1990, the UK recorded a new all-time temperature record of 37.1°C. The important point here is that this was the highest temperature ever recorded in the UK at any time of year.

That record stood until 2003, when temperatures reached 38.5°C in Kent.

Then, in 2022, it was broken again when Lincolnshire reached an unprecedented 40.3°C.

So, when we talk about temperatures not far off 40°C during this upcoming spell, it’s worth remembering that this is happening in June. Reaching those sorts of temperatures at this stage of the summer is extraordinary.

UK temperature records extend back to 1884.

I often see people on social media argue that records only go back around 140 years and that the climate has been warmer in the past. That’s true – there have certainly been warmer periods in Earth’s history. It was much warmer when dinosaurs roamed the planet, but humans weren’t around then.

The Earth’s climate has always fluctuated, but what’s concerning today isn’t simply that temperatures are rising, but the speed at which they’re rising.

Does this mean we’ll get even hotter spells this summer?

This year has been something of a mixed bag. Spring wasn’t especially impressive overall, but we did see a significant burst of heat at the end of May, and we’re now experiencing another one.

The pattern that seems to be emerging is one of occasional but intense pulses of very warm air from the south. If that continues, further hot spells are certainly possible during the summer months.

Could Scotland experience its hottest weather on record this summer?

Given the intensity of the heat already seen across Spain and France this year, it’s certainly not out of the question that Scotland’s all-time temperature record of 34.8°C could come under threat at some point this summer.

That record was set in July 2022, surpassing the previous record of 33.0°C, which had stood since August 2003.