Scotland’s population projected to fall faster than expected from 2034

Scotland’s population is projected to fall faster than expected, with declines expected to begin from mid-2034.

The latest forecast from National Records of Scotland (NRS) shows Scotland’s population falling by 1.3% by 2049.

It is initially predicted to grow by 0.3% until mid-2033; however, it is then expected to start falling.

Andrew White, head of population and migration statistics at NRS, said the change is driven by decreasing migration.

“Our latest projections are lower than the last set of figures. This is mainly driven by migration falling from unusually high levels,” Mr White said.

“While we continue to project more people moving to Scotland than leaving, we now anticipate these levels to be too low to completely offset the gap between deaths and births.

“Scotland has had more deaths than births since 2015.

“At the same time, we see the number of older people continuing to rise but the number of children and young adults fall.”

Scotland’s share of the UK population is projected to fall from 8% in mid-2024 to 7.6% in mid-2049.

NRS projections show the UK population growing by 4.5% over the next 25 years.

Although the NRS expects Scotland’s population to increase until the middle of 2033, it said population is then forecast to fall so that by mid-2049, 5.47 million people are projected to be living in Scotland.

The population projections show the number of people aged 75 and over rising by more than 300,000 by mid-2049.

In the same time period, the number of children is projected to fall by almost 166,000, and the number of young adults to drop by more than 157,000.

All countries of the UK are expected to see deaths outnumber births, and more people moving in than leaving over the 25 years to mid-2049.