Scotland's weather: Parts of Scotland to face 'wettest spell in months' after days of sunshine

For parts of Scotland, it’s felt like summer arrived early – day after day of sunshine, barely a cloud in sight, and not a drop of rain.

It’s been the kind of weather that lets you plan a picnic days in advance and confidently leave the jacket at home. But, of course, it couldn’t last forever… and change is finally on the way.

Until now, though, the dry spell has been nothing short of remarkable. Some areas have gone nearly five weeks without proper rainfall – lovely for living the outdoor life, but not so great for our rivers, which are running low across parts of the east.

Take Edinburgh: not a single drop of rain for 37 days. Lossiemouth in Moray has seen a bone-dry run of 38 consecutive days. But it’s Leuchars in Fife and Kinloss in Moray that tops the charts – with an astonishing 41 days in a row with no rain at all. That’s particularly concerning given that parts of Fife have recorded below-average rainfall every month since last summer.

Some of the Leading Spots – Days Without Rain:

Leuchars, Fife: 41 days
Kinloss, Moray: 41 days
Lossiemouth, Moray: 38 days
Gogarbank, Edinburgh: 37 days
Grangemouth, Falkirk: 36 days
Prestwick, South Ayrshire: 35 days
Millport, North Ayrshire: 34 days
Bishopton, Renfrewshire: 31 days
Dunstaffnage, Argyll & Bute: 29 days
Aviemore, Highland: 28 days
Harlosh, Isle of Skye: 28 days
Stornoway, Western Isles: 28 days
Braemar, Aberdeenshire: 27 days
Loch of Hundland, Orkney: 27 days
Altnaharra, Highland: 25 days
Fair Isle, Shetland: 24 days

It’s rare to see this many dry days in a row in Scotland, but if it’s going to happen, May is usually the month.

High-pressure patterns often settle in before shifting again as summer approaches. We all know the pattern – a cracking May, and then the weather turns just in time for the school holidays.

Historically, May is Scotland’s driest month, averaging about 80mm of rain (compared to 178mm in January). In Leuchars, the local average is around 50mm. The driest May on record there was back in 1946, with just 14mm. Even with rain expected over the coming days, we could end up challenging that record.

This weekend will bring a big shift, with rain arriving from the west. Some parts of Ayrshire, Argyll and Bute, the west Highlands, and the Hebrides could see 20-30mm – possibly the wettest spell we’ve had in months.

Next week looks more changeable too, with a fresher feel and temperatures in the teens at best.

And here’s a thought to leave you with: after a dry May, the stats show it’s a bit of a coin toss for June. But when it comes to July, about 70% of the time we end up with a wetter-than-average month.

So will this be another one of those summers where we look back in August and say, “Remember that lovely weather we had in May?”

One thing’s for sure – even if we’re not ready for a soggy summer, Scotland’s rivers probably are!