Sean Batty insight: Could Scotland be hit by Storm Ashley this weekend?

Over the past few days, computer models have been consistently predicting the development of a low-pressure system in the Atlantic, which looks set to intensify into a storm likely to impact Scotland this weekend.

It’s looking highly likely this is going to be named, and I expect warnings will be issued as we get closer to the weekend once there’s a bit more detail on track and intensity of the system.

The UK storm season officially resets in early September, so if the storm is named, it will be Ashley – the first of the season. The last named storm to affect the UK was Lilian in August, which brought heavy rain to the Borders and wind gusts reaching 60 mph on the mountain tops.

This will be the first spell of proper autumn gales for the country with most of the country experiencing a period of strong winds through Sunday and into Monday. Models are currently indicating that wind gusts could reach 70-75 mph in the most exposed parts of the Hebrides and Northern Isles.

This upcoming storm will mark the first significant autumn gales of the year, with much of the UK set to experience strong winds through Sunday and into Monday. Current models suggest gusts could reach 70-75 mph in the most exposed areas of the Hebrides and Northern Isles. Elsewhere, gusts of 50-60 mph are expected, and if the storm track holds, we could see a spell of particularly strong gusts sweeping across the central belt on Sunday night.

Adding to the potential hazards, we’re currently in a period of spring tides, when high tides are higher than usual. Combined with the strong winds, this increases the risk of coastal flooding and large waves along the coast.

As I say, the details of this system are still being watched, but expect to see some warnings in the coming days, and expect disruption if you’re planning a ferry trip on Sunday or Monday.