Sean Batty's weather forecast: Could snow make a return in May?

If you caught me on the News at Six on Friday, you might have heard me mention the possibility of “snow” in May.

Snow in May isn’t unheard of, it can even happen into June.

One of the most notable examples was in May 1973, when Balmoral woke up to 15cm of lying snow in the first few days of the month.

There were also more widespread events in early May 1982 and 1997, with lying snow recorded even in southern parts of the country. But it’s rare for it to be significant.

What about this year?

After a warmer end to April, temperatures are set to dip as we move into May.

It’s worth remembering that meteorologists don’t rely on a single forecast model – we analyse hundreds of possible scenarios to find the most likely outcome.

That means while one model suggests Glasgow reaching 17C on May 7, another shows just 6C.

The key is looking at where most of those projections cluster – and right now, that points to something closer to 10C.

A similar story for Aviemore – while projections range from 5C to 15C, a high nearer 8C looks more probable.

So, after some recent days around 20C, the start of May will feel noticeably cooler.

Overnight, we’re likely to see frost returning in rural areas. That said, there’s an important caveat – the sun is much stronger at this time of year, so in direct sunshine it can still feel pleasantly warm, even if the shade temperatures suggest otherwise.

What about snow?

Forecast models aren’t quite as cold as they appeared late last week, but the tops of the Munros are still likely to dip a few degrees below freezing – so some snowfall is expected there for a time.

A few scenarios also hint at air cold enough to bring wintry showers to the Northern Isles towards the end of the first week.

I’d say that May is usually one of the best months of the year in Scotland. It’s typically our driest, and when that coincides with warmer weather, it can feel like an early taste of summer.

Looking at the bigger picture, the latest long-range outlook suggests that although we may start May on a cooler note, temperatures overall are likely to end up above average – so any early chill shouldn’t last too long.

Rainfall is expected to be around average, though the balance of probabilities leans slightly towards a wetter-than-average month.

Even so, an “average” May in Scotland is still quite dry compared to much of the year.

So, while the month may begin on a cooler note, temperatures should rise as we head into mid-May, with a mixed picture for rainfall.