Surge in immediate threat-to-life Osman warnings issued by Police Scotland

There has been a significant surge in the number of immediate threat-to-life warnings issued by police.

Police Scotland issued a total of 26 Osman warnings in 2024 – four times more than in 2023.

This is the largest year-on-year increase in nearly a decade and the highest since 2015, when there were 28 Osmans issued.

What is an Osman warning?

In the UK, an Osman warning is issued after officers receive intelligence that a person may be in immediate danger, however, police are unable to make an arrest.

The test was introduced following a hearing at the European Court of Human Rights in 1998 regarding the murder of Ali Osman a decade earlier.

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Paul Paget-Lewis, who taught at Homerton House School in London, became obsessed with 14-year-old pupil Ahemt Osman, on occasion he followed the student home.

Police received a number of complaints regarding the teacher’s behaviour including attacks on the Osman home.

Officers were also told that Paget-Lewis spoke discussed committing a mass killing in the presence of the deputy head teacher.

In March 1988, the teacher shot and injured Ahmet at his home and killed the student’s dad Ali Osman. He also drove to the deputy headmaster’s home where the teacher killed his son and shot his former colleague.

The Osman family believe police had numerous opportunities to intervene prior to the shooting spree.

Following the hearing, the Osman Test was introduced.

In Scotland, the warning is issued when information regarding a person’s safety or there is indication of the commission of a serious crime to an individual.

In 2023, officers issued just five notices to people believed to be at risk. Over the following year a total of 26 threat to life warnings were issued.

The warnings issued in 2024 occurred prior to the surge in gang-related violence across the central belt this year.

Detective chief superintendent Raymond Higgins told STV News that the force continues to “take all reasonable steps” to ensure people’s safety.

DCS Higgins said: “Police Scotland will take all reasonable steps to protect the lives of people where there is a real and immediate risk to them.

“Threat to life warnings, personal safety advice and disruption notices are issued for a number of reasons. This can include any form of criminal or potential criminal incidents where the threat, risk and harm is assessed to require the issue of a warning, advice or notice to keep people safe.”