Scotland face Poland with eyes on Nations League prizes

In the build-up to Scotland’s final home match of 2024 on Friday, there was a common theme to the comments from the staff and players.

The step up to the top tier of the Nations League had brought a series of tests for Scotland but boss Steve Clarke, assistant John Carver and goalkeeper Craig Gordon all shared the opinion that the quality of performances in the games so far should have brought a better return than just a solitary point.

At the national stadium on Friday night, for the first time in the campaign, Scotland took maximum points. And with that win, the players opened up the chance of finishing the year on a high.

The primary target remains the same: to avoid automatic relegation to League B. But Scotland now find themselves in the unlikely position of having the possibility of finishing second, securing their top flight status, progressing to the quarter-finals of the Nations League and enjoying a World Cup qualification seeding that will make make it easier to qualify for the 2026 finals.

Achieving any of that means doing something that Scotland haven’t managed to do since September of last year and following up one win with another.

Everything is set up for a night of drama that will end in jubilation of dismay. It being Scotland, there’s likely to be an emotional rollercoaster along the way, and multiple changes to the table and the national team’s standing before the final whistle sounds.

What are the permutations?

One thing is for certain in Group A1. Portugal have already sewn up the group and will go into the quarter-finals as winners. But the three places below that are to be settled in 90 minutes on Monday night.

Scotland’s 1-0 win on Friday means they could finish in any of those spots depending on their own result against Poland in Warsaw and what happens when Portugal face Croatia in Split.

Here’s how it could pan out:

If Scotland lose or draw in Poland, Scotland finish fourth in the group and are relegated automatically.

If Scotland win and Croatia draw or win against Portugal, then Scotland leapfrog Poland into third place. They would then face a two-legged relegation play-off in March against a runner-up from League B.

If Scotland win and Croatia lose to Portugal, things get really interesting. Friday’s result means the two have an equal ‘head-to-head’ record.

So the teams would be level on seven points and level on ‘head-to-head’. UEFA’s tiebreaker rules have goal difference as the next to separate tied sides.

To overhaul the goal difference and jump up to second, Scotland would need to win by two goals or more while Croatia lose, or Croatia lose by two or more while Scotland win by one. Or Scotland to win while scoring three goals more than Croatia do in defeat.

There is one other scenario that’s far from impossible and gets really interesting:

If Scotland win 2-1 and Croatia lose 1-0 then they are tied on points, ‘head-to-head’, and goal difference of -1 from their six games.

The UEFA rules say goals scored would be the next decider but both would have seven goals to their name. Away goals is the next to apply but both sides would have four goals from their travels.

Both sides would have the same number of wins in the group overall so the deciding factor for who comes second would be on away wins and a Scotland victory in Poland would see them best Croatia on that score and take the runner-up spot by the finest of margins.

It all boils down to Scotland beating Poland by as many goals as possible and seeing what happens. That will mean a better performance and scoreline than the last time the teams met.

What happened last time?

GLASGOW, SCOTLAND - SEPTEMBER 05: Scotland's Grant Hanley looks dejected at full time during a UEFA Nations League - League A Group 1 match between Scotland and Poland at Hampden Park, on September 05, 2024, in Glasgow, Scotland. (Photo by Craig Williamson / SNS Group) — GLASGOW, SCOTLAND – SEPTEMBER 05: Scotland’s Grant Hanley looks dejected at full time during a UEFA Nations League – League A Group 1 match between Scotland and Poland at Hampden Park, on September 05, 2024, in Glasgow, Scotland. (Photo by Craig Williamson / SNS Group) SNS Group

Scotland hosted Poland in the opening game in the group, the first match in the top tier for the national side.

It didn’t get off to the best start, with Sebastian Szymanski giving Poland the lead with a long-range shot after just eight minutes. The visitors then gave themselves a two-goal cushion when Robert Lewandowski scored from the penalty spot ust before half-time.

There was an immediate reaction after the restart. Ryan Christie set Billy Gilmour to score in the 46th minute and Hampden regained some belief.

The stadium was rocking when Scott McTominay scored from close-range after Anthony Ralston had picked out the talismanic midfielder.

Scotland were on top and pushing for a winner but a heartbreaking late collapse saw the team end up without even a point.

John McGinn lost possession in midfield and when Poland broke forward Grant Hanley inexplicably fouled Nicola Zalewski in the box. The forward dusted himself down and netted the 97th minute penalty to consign Scotland to a painful 3-2 defeat.