What does Nations League performance mean for Scotland with World Cup and home Euros on horizon

Scotland defeated Poland in Warsaw on Monday to keep their hopes of remaining in the Nations League top tier alive.

The national team narrowly missed a place in the tournament’s quarterfinals after Croatia drew with Portugal in Split to stay a single point ahead of Steve Clarke’s men.

Goals from John McGinn, his 20th at international level, and Andy Robertson, on his 80th appearance for his country, secured all three points and a third-place finish in Group 1.

That means they avoid automatic relegation and set up a playoff against either Greece, Austria, Turkey or Ukraine to stay in League A.

Their Nations League performance also has ramifications for what pot Scotland will be when the draw for the World Cup qualifiers is made.

The biggest tournament in international football will be held across North America with games played in the USA, Mexico and Canada in the summer of 2026.

If Scotland had finished ahead of Croatia in the group, it would have jumped into Pot 1 for the qualifiers, avoiding the top-12 ranked teams, including Spain, France, and England.

When that failed, they had to wait until Tuesday night’s games to see if they would be in Pot 2 for the draw in December.

However, Slovakia’s 1-0 win over Estonia and the Czech Republic’s 2-1 victory over Georgia mean Clarke’s men are consigned to Pot 3.

That represents a blow to the nation’s chances of reaching their first World Cup in 26 years, with their last appearance at the tournament in 1998 when it was held in France.

Nations League

After being promoted to the top tier of the Nations League for the first time last year, Scotland knew they would be up against it in a tough group.

Following a bruising European Championships campaign in Germany during the summer, it took the national team a while to find its stride again.

However, despite suffering consecutive defeats in their first three group games, they managed to fight back and give themselves hope of reaching the latter stages before going into the last game.

They were denied a point by an injury-time penalty in a 3-2 defeat to Poland at Hampden in their opening game before falling to another late goal in a 2-1 defeat in Portugal.

A 2-1 defeat to Croatia followed, and it looked likely that they would be relegated back to League B.

But they stopped the rot with a credible 0-0 draw with the Portuguese in Glasgow before defeating Croatia 1-0 at home to give themselves a fighting chance going into the last game.

The campaign ended with a win in Warsaw that put them ahead of Poland in the group and avoided automatic relegation, but it wasn’t enough to claw back Croatia, who finished a point ahead in second place.

Final standings for League A, Group 1

Portugal (Qualified for quarterfinals)
Croatia (Qualified for quarterfinals)
Scotland (Relegation playoff)
Croatia (Relegated to League B)

Relegation playoffs: Who can Scotland play and when is the draw?

Scotland will now face a two-legged relegation playoff game in March, with the second leg to be played at Hampden.

They will play one of Greece, Ukraine, Austria, or Turkey. The winner will play in League A in the next Nations League campaign, and the loser will play in League B.

The draw for the relegation playoff games will take place on Friday.

Staying in League A for the next campaign will likely boost Scotland’s chances of reaching the European Championships, which will be held across the UK in 2028.

However, the details of how it will affect qualifying for the tournament are yet to be finalised.

World Cup qualification: Scotland’s road to North America

Scotland suffered a blow to their World Cup qualification chances by narrowly missing out on being in Pot 1 or Pot 2.

They will now be in Pot 3, which means they are guaranteed to be in a group with two teams ranked higher than them, one from Pot 1 and one from Pot 2.

The world’s best teams, such as Spain, England, France and Germany, are in Pot 1, with the likes of Sweden, Poland and the Czech Republic in Pot 2.

The draw for the qualifying groups will take place on Friday, December 13.

Scotland will need to win their group to qualify automatically or finish second for a place in the playoffs.

The tournament itself will be held across Mexico, USA and Canada in the summer of 2026.