By Senior Politics Producers Maya Bowles and Lili Donlon-Mansbridge
Almost 50 Labour MPs are set to rebel against government plans to radically change the welfare system, paving the way for the prime minister’s biggest revolt yet.
ITV News has been tracking how Labour MPs plan to vote, and understands 49 will go against the government’s plans to slash benefits for millions of people.
That number includes 42 who signed a letter last week saying the disability cuts were “impossible to support”, urging the government change course.
A number of senior backbench MPs who work as Parliamentary Private Secretaries (PPS) to ministers have also expressed concern about the changes, ITV News understands.
Other senior party figures are anxious about the size of a rebellion, saying “it is a problem”, “we are talking large numbers”, and “[the government] need to bring something forward”.
In a sign Downing Street are concerned, government whips have made the unusual move of already indicating to potential rebels that they can be absent for the vote and therefore abstain.
Why are there so many different numbers flying around?
As rebelling MPs scramble to gather support and Downing Street strive to make sure the plans are voted through, everyone is trying to put a number on exactly how many MPs could vote against the government.
ITV News has that number at 49 – including 42 who publicly signed a letter against the cuts, and an additional seven who have privately said they can’t back the plans.
While 42 MPs have come out publicly, more than 80 MPs are understood to have signed a private letter urging the government to delay the changes and rethink. ITV News understands there are at least six MPs who have signed both letters.
But many Labour backbenchers believe a large chunk of the 80 people who have signed the private letter won’t actually vote against the plans, and are instead likely to abstain or ultimately vote with the government.
Despite that, one senior Number 10 figure told ITV News’ Deputy Political Editor Anushka Asthana they feared up to 100 MPs could oppose the plans, and if the vote had happened last week in the wake of the local elections, it would likely inflict a bloody nose on Starmer’s administration.
Many Labour MPs have told ITV News they’re still deciding how to vote, and waiting to see the actual detail of the legislation they’ll be voting on.
There’s no doubt the welfare vote is likely to see the biggest rebellion of Starmer’s premiership, and if all opposition parties vote against the plans, only 83 Labour MPs need to vote against the government to defeat the legislation.
In a vote expected to take place in June, MPs will decide whether to pass the Starmer’s plans to shake up the welfare system.
The government plan to make it harder for disabled people to claim Personal Independence Payments (Pip), and to freeze universal credit incapacity benefits for existing claimants, while cutting them by 50% for new claimants.
The plans are expected to save £5bn from the ballooning welfare budget, but critics warn the move will push vulnerable people into poverty.
The government’s own impact assessment on the plans estimates that that in 2029-30, 3.2 million families will lose an average of £1,720 a year as a result of the cuts, with 250,000 people pushed into relative poverty.
The Guardian newspaper also obtained government forecasts last week that showed the cuts will hit 700,000 families who are already in poverty, on top of the projected 250,000.
Many of the MPs who have come out in opposition to the plans are calling for them to be delayed until the full assessment of cuts can be laid out, and for the consultation on the welfare reform to be expanded to allow disabled people and key stakeholders to engage in more detail.
One Labour MP told ITV News: “I didn’t become a Labour MP to make people poorer”, and was particularly critical of the Pip cuts, saying the government were trying to sell a “cuts agenda as reform”.
After a disastrous set of local elections for the government earlier this month, an increasing number of backbench Labour MPs have been warning the government to change course not only on the welfare cuts but also the cut to the winter fuel allowance for pensioners.
A group of Starmer’s own MPs from the ‘Red Wall’ have called on the government to act, writing in a letter that: “Responding to the issues raised by our constituents, including on winter fuel, isn’t weak, it takes us to a position of strength”.
The group called on the government to “break away from Treasury orthodoxy otherwise we will never get the investment we desperately need.”
When pressed on whether she might change course in light of the growing rebellion, Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall stood by the radical changes.
“We are absolutely right to say it is not good enough that 2.8 million people have been written off out of the work place due to long term sickness, a million young people not in education, employment or training.
“We have to make sure those people have the chances and choices they deserve to work”.
Kendall insisted “being written off and having a life on benefits is not good”.
In an interview with ITV News Digital Political Reporter Lewis Denison, Disability Minister Stephen Timms failed to rule out coming back for further welfare cuts in the Autumn.
“There’s lots of discussions going on at the moment, I’m very focused on the package we set out in March”, he said.
His boss Liz Kendall pushed back at reports of further cuts, saying “we don’t have any plans for that”.
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