Conservative Karol Nawrocki wins a tight presidential election in Poland

Conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki, has won Poland’s presidential election in a tight final run off.

The final vote count put Nawrocki at 50.89% ahead of his opponent, liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, by less than 2%.

Earlier exit polls had Trzaskowski ahead before being revised to give his opponent the edge.

The election of Nawrocki, who was backed by US President Donald Trump, suggests a more populist path for Poland.

Karol Nawrocki speaks to supporters at his headquarters. / Credit: AP

Although the majority of political power rests with the Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, the role of the Poland’s president is more than the ceremonial one in most countries. Nawrocki, who has been elected for a term of five years will have the power to influence foreign policy and veto legislation.

Nawrocki will succeed conservative Andrzej Duda, a conservative whose second and final term ends on August 6.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk came to power in late 2023 with a coalition government that spans a broad ideological divide — so broad that it hasn’t been able to fulfill certain electoral promises of Tusk’s, such as loosening the restrictive abortion law or passing a civil partnership law for same-sex couples.

But Duda’s veto power has been another obstacle. It has prevented Tusk from fulfilling promises to reverse laws that politicised the court system in a way that the European Union declared to be undemocratic.

Now it appears Tusk will have no way to fulfill those promises, which he made both to voters and the EU.

Liberal presidential candidate, Rafal Trzaskowski, greets supporters at his headquarters in Warsaw, Poland / Credit: AP

Nawrocki, a 42-year-old amateur boxer and historian, was tapped by the Law and Justice party as part of its push for a fresh start.

The party governed Poland from 2015 to 2023, when it lost power to a centrist coalition led by Tusk. Some political observers predicted the party would never make a comeback, and Nawrocki was chosen as a new face who would not be burned by the scandals of the party’s eight years of rule.

Nawrocki has most recently been the head of the Institute of National Remembrance, which embraces nationalist historical narratives.

Nawrocki’s supporters describe him as the embodiment of traditional, patriotic values. Those who oppose secular trends, including LGBTQ+ visibility, have embraced him, viewing him as a reflection of the values they grew up with.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was among the leaders offering their congratulations to Nawrocki on Monday morning, an acknowledgment of Poland’s key role as a neighbor, ally and hub for Western weapons sent to Kyiv.

Writing on social media, Zelenskyy described Poland as a “pillar of regional and European security.”

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who shares Nawrocki’s national conservative worldview, hailed Nawrocki’s “fantastic victory.”

Meanwhile, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen offered measured congratulations, emphasizing continued EU-Poland collaboration rooted in shared democratic values: “We are all stronger together in our community of peace, democracy, and values. So let us work to ensure the security and prosperity of our common home.”

Nawrocki’s candidacy was clouded by allegations of past connections to criminal figures and his participation in a violent street brawl. He denies the criminal links but was unapologetic about the street fight, saying he had taken part in “noble” fights in his life.

A common refrain from Nawrocki’s supporters is that he will restore “normality,” as they believe Trump has done. U.S. flags often appeared at Nawrocki’s rallies, and his supporters believed that he offered a better chance for good ties with the Trump administration.

Nawrocki has also echoed some of Trump’s language on Ukraine. He promises to continue Poland’s support for Ukraine but has been critical of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, accusing him of taking advantage of allies.