Iran bets it can push for peace on its terms or return to war

It has been a ceasefire in name only for weeks now, and overnight any semblance of peace was lost amid the volleys of missiles being traded between Iran and Israel.

Iran had insisted Israeli strikes on Beirut were a red line and yesterday that line was crossed. Within hours, the Islamic Republic fired waves of missiles towards Israel.

As Donald Trump publicly claimed he was going to stop an Israeli response, the counterattack began. The targets, military sites and energy sites in Tehran and across the country.

The cycle will likely continue into the days ahead. None of it bodes well for President Trump’s claim of an imminent deal nor for the global economy. Oil prices have already risen.

Tricky also for those relations with Gulf allies. President Trump’s vocal claims that he was going to stop any response are likely to have been a performative attempt to be seen to be doing something by those whose countries may see the force of Iranian reaction.

The conversations between the leadership in Israel and Washington have often been less forceful in private than in public and this administration is no different.

What this also speaks to is a continuing miscalculation of Iran’s military position. When, 100 days ago, this war began, the view from Israel and the USA was that it would be over swiftly, with a crushing defeat of the Islamic Republic. That has not come to pass.

A projectile streaks through the sky over central Israel during an Iranian missile attack / Credit: AP

After 40 days of war, Iran is still firing and remains a military force.

Sixty days on, taking the fight back to the Israelis, and in effect the Americans, shows that Iran is far from a spent force. That it decided to act for an ally, Hezbollah, in another country, Lebanon, has the air of leadership feeling confident instead of cowed by war.

And why would they not? They have held out this long and now have a chokehold over global shipping and, therefore, the global economy.

So long as they have the Strait, they have the power, and for now there is no sign of any agreement to open it.

Iran has gambled it can afford to push for peace on its terms and also afford to return to war.