‘Physical threat’ from Iran has ‘increased significantly’, watchdog finds

The threat of physical attacks on people living in the UK by Iran has increased “significantly” since 2022, Parliament’s intelligence watchdog has warned.

In a report published on Thursday, Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee described the threat from Iran as “persistent” and “unpredictable”.

The committee found the “physical threat” from Iran had “significantly increased”, focused on Iranian dissidents and Israeli interests, and was now “comparable with the threat posed by Russia”.

It also warned that the nuclear threat from Iran had also increased, since the US withdrew from the international nuclear agreement in 2018, and argued that de-escalation “must be a priority”.

The Irainian embassy in Knightsbridge, London. / Credit: PA

The report from the nine-member committee, which scrutinises the work of Britain’s intelligence agencies, only covers the period up to August 2023 with publication delayed due to last year’s election.

Between the beginning of 2022 and the end of the committee’s evidence-gathering in August 2023, the report found there had been at least 15 attempts at murder or kidnap against British nationals or UK residents.

The committee has urged the government to make clear to Iran that attempts would “constitute an attack on the UK and would receive the appropriate response”.

Committee chairman Lord Beamish said: “Iran poses a wide-ranging, persistent and unpredictable threat to the UK, UK nationals and UK interests”.

Describing Iran’s “high appetite for risk when conducting offensive activity”, he added: “As the committee was told, Iran is there across the full spectrum of all the kinds of threats we have to be concerned with.”

His committee also recommended that the Government consider whether it was “legally possible and practicable” to proscribe Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation and make a full statement to Parliament on the issue.

Ministers have faced calls in recent years to ban the IRGC, but the committee recognised there were “complexities inherent” in such a decision.

Iranian journalist Sima Sabet told ITV News how she fears for her safety, after an Iranian assassination plot targeting her was uncovered

Since August 2023, the international picture has changed with the outbreak of the Israel-Gaza war and the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear targets.

Despite these changes, the committee insisted its recommendations remained “relevant”.

The committee warned that, while Iran had neither developed a nuclear weapon nor decided to produce one by August 2023, it had taken steps towards development in recent years since Donald Trump withdrew from the 2018 deal.

It also warned that the UK remained a target for Iranian espionage, which it found was “narrower in scope and scale” and “less sophisticated” than the threat from Russia and China.

While Iran’s political interference has had a “negligible effect”, the committee warned that Iran-backed cultural and educational centres such as the Islamic Centre of England could be being used to “promote violent and extremist ideology”.

The committee said it was also “essential” to “raise the resilience bar” on cybersecurity across the UK in the face of Iran’s willingness to carry out digital attacks.

Regarding the Government’s response to the Iranian threat, the committee warned that policy had “suffered from a focus on crisis management” over Iran’s nuclear programme and lacked “longer-term thinking”.

It also criticised a “lack of Iran-specific expertise”, saying there was “seemingly no interest in building a future pipeline of specialists”.

One witness told the committee: “If you have people running policy in the Foreign Office who don’t speak a word of Persian, then that is a fat lot of good.”

The UK had sanctioned 508 individuals and 1,189 individuals relating to Iran by August 2023, but the committee urged the government to reconsider whether sanctions “will in practice deliver behavioural change or in fact unhelpfully push Iran towards China”.

However, it welcomed the decision to place Iran in the “enhanced tier” of the new Foreign Influence Registration Scheme, placing extra burdens on people acting on Tehran’s behalf in the UK.

Iranian journalist Sima Sabet, alongside fellow news anchor Fardad Farahzad, became the target of an assassination plot by Iranian spies, revelations which were uncovered by ITV News in December 2023.

She said, “The most important thing that comes to my mind is, what is going to be the UK’s government response to that report, what actions are they going to take?”

Sima told ITV News that she learnt nothing new from the committee’s report

A statement from the Iranian embassy in the UK said: “The Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran firmly denies all allegations made in these sections and considers them to be baseless, irresponsible, and reflective of a broader pattern of distortion intended to malign Iran’s legitimate regional and national interests.

“These claims not only lack substantive evidence but also contradict the Islamic Republic of Iran’s principled commitment to international law, sovereign equality, and peaceful coexistence…

“The suggestion that Iran engages in or supports acts of physical violence, espionage, or cyber aggression on British soil or against British interests abroad, is wholly rejected.

“Such accusations are not only defamatory but also dangerous, fuelling unnecessary tensions and undermining diplomatic norms.”