Words by ITV News Senior Producer Jack Abbey
The annual rate of food inflation could rise to up to 12% in 2026, mostly as a result of the energy crisis spiked by the war in the Middle East, ITV News has been told.
ITV News has consulted academics at The Food Systems Institute at The University of Nottingham, Bournemouth University and the University of Exeter, two of whom have been advising the government’s Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs on how to model the impact of energy prices on the retail price of food in the current situation.
The calculations were made on the basis of energy prices remaining high at 50% above pre-war levels.
Any prices rises, they emphasise, depend hugely on the duration of the conflict and the levels of damage and disruption to energy infrastructure in the region.
Paul Wilson, Professor of Agricultural Economics at the University of Nottingham said, “We would expect some prices to move more or less immediately, although the full effect will unwind over the next 12-18 months.
“Even if the war ended tomorrow we would expect food prices to rise over the medium term owing to current disruption.”
In the aftermath of the war in Ukraine – the last time we experienced an energy shock – food price inflation peaked at 19.2%.
That was exacerbated by a shortage of grain which couldn’t leave Ukraine, one of the world’s biggest producers of the crop.
Food prices rose by 3.2% in year to February 2026 as the industry contended with higher packaging costs due to new regulations, the employers National Insurance hike, and an increased minimum wage.
That was higher than the overall rate of headline inflation of 3.0%.
Energy is one of the most important determinants of food prices. It’s required in almost all stages of food production including heating, refrigeration, processing, packaging and transport.
Nearly a third (30%) of the world’s energy usage is dedicated to food production.
Experts say all types of food will be impacted but inflation of goods with shorter production times and those which require intensive energy inputs will be felt earliest.
Amongst the first foods expected to experience price rises are energy intensive horticultural products like cucumbers and tomatoes, which require heated greenhouses to grow.
Other candidates for inflation in the short-term include heavily processed foods like crisps and chocolate as well as imported fruits and goods like tea and coffee.
Inflation is likely to take longer to feed through into grains like rice and wheat (the key ingredient in bread and pasta) because the crops take longer to grow, and much of the fertiliser required for current crops will already have been bought.
Meats like lamb and beef are likely to be the last foods impacted by rising prices because of how long the animals take to raise – but they are not immune.
Across the broad range of these products, increased transportation costs amid a global shortage of diesel will add to food inflation. A problem made worse by Britain’s reliance on imported food.
Professor Emeritus Tim Lang, of City St George’s University of London said: “Britain is more exposed than other countries because we have chosen not to produce very much food.
“We had to do it in World War II and we then rebuilt agriculture up to about 80%, 82% by the mid-1980s, and it’s been slowly declining ever since.
“It depends how you calculate it, we’re maybe 50% to 60% self-reliant at the moment. That means 40% not. That’s a heck of a lot of food.”
Food inflation can be particularly damaging as it is felt disproportionately by those on the lowest incomes who spend a higher share of their money on food than those better off.
As with so much that relates to this war, the impact here in the UK will be determined by how the US, Israel and Iran act 3000 miles away in the Gulf.
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