What is the triple lock on pensions?

There is mounting speculation that Prime Minister Andy Burnham could set out plans to scrap the triple lock on pensions.

Ministers have refused to confirm a commitment to the triple lock in Labour’s next manifesto, although the party’s current manifesto formed under Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership does commit to the safeguard on pension growth.

It is thought that Burnham may be eyeing up changes to the pension fund in order to pay for his plan to fix social care in England.

Angela Rayner suggested that pensioners could be willing to give up the triple lock if they know their money is going towards social care rather than to fill a “black hole” in government spending.

The senior Cabinet minister praised Burnham for being willing to stake his political reputation on fixing a social care system in England which leaves people facing a “lottery” at the end of their lives.

Changing the triple lock has long been seen as off-limits for politicians because of the risk of losing the votes of pensioners, despite warnings from economists that it is unsustainable with an ageing population.

So, what is the triple lock and why would scrapping it be controversial?

Burnham may scrap the triple lock to pay for social care. / Credit: PA

What is the triple lock?

The triple lock on pensions was introduced in by the coalition government in 2011 and guarantees that the state pension increases every year to keep up with rising costs.

The Conservative government continued the policy from 2015 and retained it in their manifesto in subsequent elections, with Starmer adopting it in his 2024 pledges.

The lock ensures that pensions will rise in line with inflation, 2.5% or average earnings – whichever is the largest increase.

In 2026, the state pension increased by 4.8%, meaning pensioners saw a boost of up to £575 over the year from April 2026.

State pensions are the largest single part of welfare spend, costing £138 billion in 2024-2025, with some experts forecast a rise of £13 billion by 2029-2030.

Why do some people want it scrapped?

Under the triple lock, state pensions have grown each year faster than inflation and earnings and pensioners are seeing their incomes grow faster than the rest of the population.

The pensions bill is ballooning so some believe ending the triple lock would be a good decision to reallocate funding elsewhere.

The current suggestion is that scrapping the lock could free up funding to put towards Burnham’s potential NHS-style social care service, something he is expected to talk about in his speech at Labour conference.

On Tuesday morning, the housing secretary said the prime minister was prepared to take criticism in order to make a difference.

Speaking at a live recording of Sky’s Electoral Dysfunction podcast, Rayner said: “We’ve got a prime minister who said, ‘I am okay with burning through all my political capital to the point where it might finish me off on the basis that my legacy will be something better and different’.”

But not everyone agrees. Union boss Sharon Graham said that scrapping the triple lock would be “morally wrong” even if the money was used to pay for social care.

“Going to a group of people who are getting around £12,500 a year in order to pay for it to take away their security is wrong,” she said. “I think it’s morally wrong.”

If Burnham was to go ahead and scrap the triple lock, it’s likely to only be a manifesto pledge for 2029 as he is still bound by Starmer’s 2024 election promises.