'Ten years to make UK defence a credible deterrent'

words by Robert Peston

It will take ten years for Britain’s armed forces and defence capability to become match fit, so much have they been hollowed out over the past 25 years.

That is the central devastating conclusion of the unpublished Strategic Defence Review commissioned by Sir Keir Starmer.

The better news is that it is wholly practical and possible to rehabilitate Britain’s military deterrent. But it requires much more investment and spending, coupled with an industrial policy that brings back to these shores cutting-edge technology development, manufacturing capacity and jobs.

The report is finished. It is wholly unclear why it has not been published or when it will be. I’ve asked relevant people and they shrug.

One potential cost of publishing is it will demonstrate how painfully stretched our armed forces would be if deployed to Ukraine as part of Starmer’s “coalition of the willing” to police a future peace deal.

Such is the shortage of personnel, ammunition and hardware that deployment to Ukraine would make it almost impossible for the UK military to engage in any other theatre of conflict at the same time. So there are risks to the UK of putting its military eggs into the Ukraine basket, as it were.

I am told that a version of the Joint Rapid Reaction Force – combining elements of navy, RAF and army – would be deployed to Ukraine, with personnel rotating.

The Strategic Defence Review recommends the UK develop and own more of its own core military technology, and reduce dependence on the US. It came to this view long before Trump switched off support for Ukraine’s military and proved himself an unreliable partner to Europe.